BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

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This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50-100 entrances at the $25k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Aside from that, I believe we’ve got a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that’s what I am looking for. I want the wins that are safer in cash and that I will be concerned about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we can get away from him in the GPPs in his cost because if he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win 25k. It will help us triumph in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win here. I think he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my cash lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he’s the greatest ITD odds on the card in -222. This is a set up fight for him to get a knockout and I think this is quite likely going to take place in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 things and I am considering that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of this week, but he is GPP just for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for cash games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts longer in that format. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they are released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is preferred to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would provide him a good shot at being to the optimal lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs since I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we need to own”underdogs” in our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the clear path to victory for Glover is to the floor and that’s precisely what I anticipate his game must be. I enjoy him to get a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a strong fade as well… However, I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and I have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I think she uses her wrestling in defense to attempt to keep this fight on the toes. Each of the threat is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of the two. I believe she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it 8.2k so that I just don’t see the way she ends up on the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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